Will UPC back FDC�s Besigye?
Will UPC back FDC�s Besigye?
Col. Kizza Besigye during the launch of the Inter-party cooperation last year
SOME UPC leaders have expressed reservations about the idea of fielding a joint presidential candidate under the Inter-Party Cooperation. *Moses Mulondo* talked to them.
A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the Inter-Party Cooperation as the allying parties FDC, UPC, JEEMA, and CP prepare to elect a joint presidential candidate to represent them in the forthcoming 2011 elections.
But many analysts believe that IPC is an alliance between two national parties (UPC and FDC) accompanied by two constituency (small) parties.
As such, it is believed by many that the alliance between the two parties cannot work because FDC currently occupies political space that used to belong to UPC.
The IPC National Electoral Affairs Committee (NEAC), which has been mandated to manage the process for electing a joint presidential candidate and other joint candidates at all levels, was recently inaugurated at Uganda House.
The committee comprises Maj. Rubaramira Ruranga and East African Assembly legislator Hon. Dan Wandera from FDC, Renowned economist Dr. Nelson Ofwono and prominent Kampala lawyer Kavuma Kabenge from UPC, Dan Walyemera and Edmund Nkalubo from CP, Ibrahim Nsamba and Dr. Mukiibi Katende from JEEMA.
Going by the fact that CP and JEEMA have one MP each in Parliament, many analysts believe IPC is an alliance between two national parties with two small constituency parties accompanying them. As such, IPC is mainly an alliance between UPC and FDC. But given the political realities on the ground, can that kind of alliance surely work?
Moses Ruzindana, the public opinions� political researcher, said it is very unlikely for UPC and FDC to create a joint presidential and parliamentary electoral platform.
�It is very clear that FDC is occupying a political space that used to belong to UPC. At a time when there is UPC glory nostalgia after the emergency of a courageous and inspirational leader Olara Otunnu, it is very impossible for UPC to backing the FDC president. If Otunnu accepts rallying behind FDC�s Besigye, he will face resistance from within UPC,� Ruzindana argued.
He added that over three thirds of the parliamentary seats occupied by FDC belonged to UPC, and if the latter truly want to regain their glory, then there will be a serious battle between the two parties concerning those constituencies especially in the northern part of Uganda.
That is why some people believe an alliance between DP and UPC will have been more effective because the two are Uganda �s oldest parties hand ave distinct political constituencies.
Even FDC spokesperson Wafula Oguttu told Sunday Vision recently that the reason they wanted DP to join IPC was to enable the alliance to have significant acceptance in the central region, which is the most densely populated region of Uganda.
*Sunday Vision* has also learnt that a big group of UPC stalwarts majority belonging to Jimmy Akena�s camp are planning to organise fresh elections for electing a UPC flag bearer in the 2011 elections should Otunnu accept to back Besigye.
A survey done by Sunday Vision across the IPC parties reveals that Besigye still enjoys more support than Otunnu. Even the recent Sunday Vision poll on opposition politicians put Otunnu in the third place after Besigye and DP�s Norbert Mao.
But the UPC deputy spokesperson argued that his president performed poorly in the poll because by the time it was done Otunnu had not yet become the UPC president. Other factors remaining constant, the poll indicated that there is a very high likelihood of Besigye winning the contest for a joint opposition candidate.
But if that happens and Otunnu accepts to back Besigye, he will have put himself in a trying moment within UPC as more resistance is expected to emerge.
A highly placed UPC stalwart, who belongs to Otunnu�s think-tank said most of his colleagues are opposed to UPC accepting to back FDC�s president as their joint presidential candidate.
�We held many discussions on this crucial matter and we have come up with alternatives on whatever eventually choosing Otunnu and Besigye. We shall first mobilise for sufficient support to enable Otunnu win and if he fails we shall have something to do about it,� said the UPC official. Though it was a new kid on Uganda�s political scene in 2006, FDC�s chance of having had the most powerful opposition candidate enabled the party to occupy political space that used to be occupied by UPC.
Many world political researchers have concluded that the major source of strength for a political party is having a powerful inspirational leader like DP and UPC lacked in 2006, leading to the loss of their members and political space to the newly formed FDC. Many commentators have repeatedly said with the emergence of the inspirational former UN diplomat Olara Otunnu on Uganda�s political scene, the current state of affairs within UPC is completely different from that of 2006.
Since he took over the leadership of UPC, Otunnu has always promised that he would rejuvenate the glory of UPC as the most powerful party in Uganda. To fulfil this promise, Otunnu even appointed a UPC council of elders to act as the go between the party leadership and the aggrieved senior party members, who had either crossed to other parties or stopped working for the party.
A senior IPC steering committee official, who is from neither FDC nor UPC said choosing between the Besigye and Otunnu will be a very complicated task for them.
�Both men are equally good. Many of our colleagues are arguing that since Otunnu has brought international pressure on the NRM Government concerning democratic reforms, he would easily defeat Museveni. Otunnu is equally daring in challenging Museveni. But Besigye also has the advantage of being a household name in Uganda known by everybody,� he said.
It is that kind of background that creates the unlikelihood of these two parties agreeing on a joint presidential candidate and joint parliamentary candidates.
But a senior IPC Steering Committee official, Asuman Odoka, who is also JEEMA�s secretary for policy analysis said the IPC presidents have held several meetings and have all agreed to back the one who will go through.
�Many of us also doubted whether the four presidents would agree on backing one candidate as our joint candidate but they have repeatedly assured of us that they will act as the IPC protocol requires them. Each one of the four has convinced us that he will back the winner,� Odoka stated.
Some people within IPC are now suggesting that of Otunnu and Besigye, one should become the running mate of the winner.
Published on: *Saturday, 26th June, 2010*
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