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Pojim:

You are obviously thinking ahead but I doubt that is what the opposition is doing. Mr. Akanga accuses me of being obsessed with wining, hello no. I am obsessed with the process not winning at any cost as manifested in my Gandhian mantra: only fair means led to fair ends. .

You have identified the challenges facing the opposition parties in Uganda well. But here is the other bad news. The more the opposition parties get together to pick leaders, the worse things become for the opposition. Alas! I mean the more unity eludes them. Two for two so far and at lest one more to go-FDC-before yet another one IPC. And I bet you that on each of those occasions expect more fall out. Meanwhile YKM and his NRMO are waiting for the fall out before he moves.

Now how would you make the opposition listen to the compromise you suggested about the line up? I am not sure the IPC can be the equivalent of NARC in Kenya. You do a careful analysis and you will come to the same conclusion.

What is even more depressing is the fact that the opposition partied shave legitimized rigging. I kept asking myself the questions: when is rigging bad? When are missing voters from the registry bad? Are these things bad only when they apply to NRMO or carried out by the EC? Is the opposition in Uganda exempt from free and fair elections? If so on what grounds? I hope someone out there from the opposition can answer them for me. Until then I will firmly occupy the neither/nor camp.

Actually the only possible way the opposition can have a fighting chance and make the 2100 election at least contestable –competitive as Labour is fighting in the UK, they could win a minority govt-is to excite their bases. Is the UPC base excited today and fired up to go to the voting booth? What about the DP base and so on? The FDC base wherever that is may be excited, but given the recent developments where is that base exactly?

Now that brings me to the IPC. I have tried to model this IPC thing from an industrial organization perspective and the tentative outcomes do not look good for the IPC and thus opposition in Uganda. The outcome is paradoxical. That is YKM will defeat the IPC handily than would be the case if he faced a fired up, DP, UPC and FDC bases. In plain English, the greatest beneficiary of the IPC is actually YKM!

I am dead serious because I have carefully modeled it along the basis of the PC/computer market. Mac believers will never buy anything but a Mac. The same applies to Dell lovers, IBM lovers etc. People are very loyal to their brands when it comes to computers. Now does this apply to voting behavior? Most likely.

I bring this up now to alert the opposition supporters that this IPC thing may end up showering up YKM and actually hurting the opposition more! So the opposition people here need to be aware of the possibility of a paradoxical outcome. The more the opposition comes together the easier it makes it for YKM to win with a large margin. And why might that be the case? Mbale and Nambole and God knows where FDC and IPC are scheduled to meet. I have volunteered this likely scenario to warm the opposition to think strategically and weigh the pros and cons of IPC. From my modeling, the cons far outweigh the pros.

But since I am in the neither/nor camp, that is the best I can offer the opposition. It is up to their supporters and strategists to wake up and think hard.

I also asked myself this morning whether it is possible that DP and UPC will unite. My gut feelings told me to forget it. What is actually likely to happen is that the vengeful ‘winners’ from Mbale and Nambole will go for the kill. I do not believe for the moment that their obsession with winning at all cost will make them magnanimous in victory. They will do the exact opposite of what the Baganda caution against that “Bwomega toluma”/when you wrestle someone to the ground, you don’t again bite him.

Expect the vengeful ‘winners’ from Mbale and Nambole to do just that: bite hard. What do I mean? It is not far fetched that come 2011, senior DP and UPC members will have to run as independents because the ‘winners; will NOT endorse their papers. Save this e-mail and check it out come nomination time. Yes, you are going to have senior DP and UPC members running as independents and some winning handily against their party candidates. Now if you still had any illusion that the opposition can possibly pull it off that should make you re-think.

Sure they are going to talk about forgiveness and party unite for the good of their parties and poor Uganda in public, but at night, they will be plotting to finish off those who either stayed away from Mbale or went down to defeat in Nambole. I have seen enough about African politics to make this prediction.

I do not want to discourage opposition supporters in UAH but it does not look good for 2011.

No wonder some folks in the opposition want NRMO to bail them out: amend the law to allow presidential candidates also run as MPs. But is YKM interested?

I hope FDC and especially Dr Besigye is watching and weighing very carefully not faa the consequences of Mbale and now Nambole. He certainly has most to lose if he gets it wrong.

The opposition has to go back to the drawing but it may be too late to stop the self inflicted damage.

Now, Pojim, do you expect the IPC to reduce the cabinet to 15? Why do you think they are fighting this hard and long? Is it not about that flag? Pole to those who will be depressed.

I saw it in Kenya during the 1988 mlolongo elections. The ‘winners’ in KANU were vengeful to the hilt. Regrettably that is what is going to happen in DP and UPC: expect senior party members to run as independents.

In UPC things may even be weird that those who ran as independents last time in Lango in particular will this time run as UPC and those who ran as UPC will ran as independents! Of course the smart independents last time will still run as independents come 2011. I see nothing but revenge from the ‘winners’. And even FDC too because the potential for a fall out are there. Pole.

So the question remains, how can the opposition possibly win in 2011?

WBK

WBK;

Your fear and reservation are spot on. For about three weeks now since I was convinced that Olara Otunnu would win the UPC presidential seat, I have been working on some scenarios to beat NRM. That’s why I mentioned earlier today that no single opposition party can beat Museveni. The scenarios must give Ugandans faith and assurance in three chief deliverables; (1) real peace and stability, (2) socio-economic overhaul, and, (3) international relations that restates Uganda’s image as a peace-loving, trustworthy partner. In analyzing the core competencies of the three opposition leaders, (Otunnu, Mao, Besigye or Muntu) I reached the conclusion that all the three need one another. Which, in a way, will bring the kind of team spirit at top government level needed to re-engage Ugandans. Where Mao and Besigye are stronger than Otunnu in village-based, retail politics, they lack Otunnu’s international suave and experience. Where Otunnu and Mao will cherish legislative maneuvers and guide government MPs in law making, they lack the experience and empathy that both Besigye and Muntu command in the military. Where all the three are charismatic, eloquent intellectuals, Mao tops them as having been a chief executive (District Chairman), with experience in running a government – from managing fiscal budget, to working with donors and making critical investment decisions for his district. So, there are only two ways forward: each party goes solo and lose, or they melt under IPC before the elections. That way, they would marshal their resources for utmost benefit: the parties would identify the strongest candidate in every constituency, and then go all the way in supporting that candidate. I would also implore them to work on this tentative line-up: President – UPC (Otunnu)Vice-President and Minister for Defense – FDC (Besigye/Muntu)Prime Minister and Head of Government Business – DP (Mao) They would reduce the cabinet to 15, and split portfolios three ways. Oh, boy, here I go again, dreaming! Pojim

Kyijomanyi Sent: Sat, March 13, 2010 5:11:28 PM

Pojim:

I am going to be honest with you and I am sure I will be called all kinds of names for it, but so be it. How can the opposition possibly win? Even if they came together under the IPC there is no way they will win. And here is why. The two oldest political parties are split. You and I can go to church tomorrow and pray all we want; there will be no unity in the opposition. It is a pyrrhic victory.

Where are the votes that will help the opposition to win? In Busoga? In Lango? In Teso? In West Nile ? In Buganda ? Why? Because these are the areas that will determine the next election. Mark you the opposition ceded Western Ugandan sans Kasese to YKM and NRM.

Without the capacity to ‘rig’ the national election, how can the opposition possibly win? That is now the big question. Mark you, the IPC will further divide the opposition so go figure. The easier part (read cheap rigging) is over. Now the hard part begins. The reality must set in.

It is time now to ask the big questions. Short of the opposition putting their man or woman in charge of the EC and let me tell, you the opposition and even the editorial writers at Ugandan papers have no moral credibility to criticize the EC anymore.

You tell me how the opposition can plot a majority of votes. Who can win it for the opposition? Which combo can do it? Hint; think Lango, Teso, West Nile , Busoga and Buganda .

I am a little bit surprised; scrap that, by the lack of strategic thinking among the opposition. They should have emulated Lyon in the defeat of read Madrid .

For me I believe in the Gandhian mantra: only fair means lead to fair ends. I am staying put in the neither/nor camp so I have no tears to shed come 2011.

But will help the opposition to sharpen their thinking by asking them the big question: how can they possibly win?

WBK